For many years, the growth of many companies in the packaging industry was based on one central principle: growing with existing key customers. But the age of predictable growth is over. New times have dawned. They are characterised by uncertainty and stagnation. The rules of the game are changing accordingly. Before we look at the new paths to growth in the second article of the Business Development section, we will take stock of the current situation.
The established growth model
In an industry survey conducted by BP Consultants, 87 per cent of companies already stated in 2021 that developing existing customer relationships was their most important growth strategy. The perceived uncertainty regarding the success of the strategy was very low.
The reason for this dominance was clear: the model worked. Particularly in key account management, close collaboration with growing customers promised an efficient means of achieving low-risk growth. In short: if you looked after your existing customers well, you could grow with them. And without the high costs and risks associated with acquiring new customers or markets.
New game with new factors
But this old foundation is visibly crumbling. The rules of the game have changed. Today, our industry is faced with a multitude of new challenges. These include
- global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions,
- volatile commodity prices and disrupted supply chains,
- increasing regulatory requirements and
- growing competition – including from non-European market players.
Stagnation and uncertainty dominate
A look at the World Uncertainty Index or the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index shows that uncertainty is higher than during the financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, economic growth in leading industrialised nations is stagnating, as the CAGR figures for the past 15 years based on the World Bank Group show:
- Germany: +1.2% (but at +0.1% between 2019-2024)
- France: +0.3 %
- United Kingdom: +1.0 %
- Italy and Spain: slight decline
Even in markets such as China and the USA, which were once regarded as guarantors of growth, stable growth can no longer be taken for granted in view of the tense geopolitical situation.
Core segments lose growth momentum
The changing situation is particularly evident in the most important sales markets for packaging, such as food retail. This is illustrated by figures from the Federal Statistical Office (2025) and GlobalData (2025).
- Real sales in the German food retail sector have been stagnating for years and are now only just at the level of 2015.
- This means that a key growth driver in the packaging industry is losing momentum.
In such an environment, even well-maintained customer relationships reach their growth limits.
Risky adherence to the status quo
The consequences are obvious: holding on to stagnating customer portfolios is a risky strategy. Regardless of this, industry data shows a strong dependence on the traditional model. The aforementioned results of our industry survey (2021) show that
- 87 per cent of companies focus on developing existing customer relationships.
- Although around 79 per cent rate the acquisition of new customers in existing markets as strategically relevant, they associate this with five times more uncertainty.
- The greatest uncertainty is seen in the development of new sectors. Here, the perceived risk is 20 times higher compared to the development of existing customers.
The figures make this clear: The industry is reluctant to break new ground. That is dangerous. Because the room for manoeuvre within the traditional model is becoming increasingly smaller.
Looking ahead: From farmer to hunter
- In the classic “farmer model”, existing customer relationships are continuously maintained and developed. In a stagnating market environment, this development comes to a standstill – and typically only leads to low growth, which is often in the 0-1 per cent CAGR range.
- In contrast, “hunter models”, in which companies actively focus on acquiring new customers, often achieve significantly higher growth rates. These can be in the range of +4 – 5 per cent CAGR.
However, this requires a different approach, new competences and a strategic market orientation. In the next article, we will discuss in detail what this change looks like and how it can be achieved.
Interim conclusion: the industry is at a turning point
The packaging industry is at a strategic crossroads. In times of economic stagnation and global uncertainty, the old growth model is losing its effectiveness. Those who continue to focus everything on existing customers risk losing momentum in the medium term. At the same time, those who realign themselves now can gain market share – even in a challenging environment.
Read the article “Success factors for new customer acquisition: from farmer to hunter” to find out how companies can tap into new growth through targeted new customer acquisition and which success factors are decisive for this.
